Way Too Early 2013 Rankings – Part I

A healthy Trent Richardson should be a top-5 fantasy RB next season. (Photo: Icon SMI)

Since I assume you are a rational person who isn’t still playing fantasy football in Week 17, I’ve already turned the page to next year. And if you’re like me, you get a good deal of enjoyment out of seeing rankings for next year, despite the ink barely being dry on this season. Therefore, I’ve decided to dive in and provide my gut feel on what 2013 might bring. The 2013 fantasy football rankings below obviously don’t take into account things like player movement, coaching changes, or rookies, but it’s a fun exercise to analyze – at least at a high level – which players you might be focusing on in next year’s fantasy drafts. We’ll get started with the top 12 quarterbacks and the top 36 running backs, and check back in later with the receivers and tight ends. Enjoy, and Happy New Year!

The following rankings assume a standard scoring (50% TDs, 50% yardage) league with 0.5 PPR.

Quarterbacks

1. Cam Newton, Panthers
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
5. Tom Brady, Patriots
6. Peyton Manning, Broncos
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons
8. Andrew Luck, Colts
9. Matthew Stafford, Lions
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
11. Eli Manning, Giants
12. Russell Wilson, Seahawks

The top six are almost interchangeable. I won’t stop being friends with you if you prefer the essentially guaranteed return an investment in Rodgers, Brees, Brady, or Manning will get you, I just personally prefer the massive upside of Netwon, who was easily fantasy football’s best QB for the second half of the season. At some point, you have to assume Brees and Brady may slow down due to age. Peyton Manning has proven that age may not matter that much, and it doesn’t appear any of the three vets will slow down in 2013, but you just never know. RG3 gets dinged for an already-on-display penchant for injury, and he just doesn’t have the body (like Newton does) to withstand the constant hits he’ll take if he keeps running as much as he did this year. Ryan disappointingly regressed as the season went on – he may never be a truly elite fantasy QB. You can make a great case for Romo ahead of Ryan, Luck, or Stafford – he was the No. 3 fantasy QB over the season’s final eight weeks – but I prefer the aforementioned trio’s youth and upside. Both Luck and Stafford benefit from enormously high-volume passing attacks. There’s something about the high-TD, low-yardage season registered by Wilson this year that I don’t trust from a fantasy perspective, and without his fluky 3-rushing-TD game in Week 15, his numbers don’t look that great. He narrowly made this list over other young QBs Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Josh Freeman.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
2. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Doug Martin, Buccaneers
5. Trent Richardson, Browns
6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
7. Arian Foster, Texans
8. C.J. Spiller, Bills
9. Alfred Morris, Redskins
10. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
11. Chris Johnson, Titans
12. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs

Peterson is a no-brainer at the top. It doesn’t matter how bad the offense is around him, but it can’t possibly get worse in 2013. Lynch just keeps getting better, and is perhaps the most consistent and matchup-proof back in the league. Only Peterson and Martin outscored him in the second half of the 2012 season. Rice was frustratingly inconsistent this year, but still ranked as a top-5 fantasy back in 2012, in part because of his slump-proof contributions in the passing game. Martin’s been compared to Rice since this time last year, and he’s not far off. To think that he spent most of the first half of the year producing almost nothing and still wound up as a top-5 fantasy back is incredible, and it’s scary to think that he should improve in his second season while continuing to benefit from playing games in the high-scoring, defense-optional NFC South. It’s even scarier to think what Richardson could do if he stayed healthy and if the Browns upgrade the offense around him. Talent-wise, he’s the one player on this list capable of unseating AP as fantasy’s best RB. But there are still a lot of risks. Spiller could easily go bonkers in Buffalo, but I’m still concerned about Fred Jackson stealing looks, especially at the goal line. Spiller had a stretch of five scoreless games in 2012, and only notched six rushing TDs. Needless to say, I’m very concerned about Foster. He was “only” the fifth-best fantasy back in the season’s final six weeks, his YPC average has decreased significantly each of the last two seasons, and he’s been run into the ground by the Texans. His receiving numbers and knack for scoring short TDs has masked an obvious trend of decline, and it wouldn’t shock me if Ben Tate starts taking more and more carries as 2013 wears on. Foster’s three-year workload has him entering 2013 with glaring red alarm bells. I think McCoy will be fine – Bryce Brown proved he can’t be a feature back in the NFL without vast improvements in ball security and vision – but with pretty much everything up in the air in Philly right now, there are a lot of red flags on McCoy as well. Morris appears entrenched as the Redskins starter, but lingering uneasiness about Mike Shanahan’s backfield shenanigans keep him from the fantasy elite. Ridley’s in a similar boat in a Bill Belichick offense that can be both lucrative and extremely frustrating from a fantasy perspective. Johnson and Charles are almost the same back at this point – huge boom-or-bust potential for both players. It’s tough to win a fantasy league with those types of players.

13. Demarco Murray, Cowboys
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
15. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
16. Darren McFadden, Raiders
17. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
18. Frank Gore, 49ers
19. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
20. Vick Ballard, Colts
21. Matt Forte, Bears
22. Reggie Bush, Free Agent
23. David Wilson, Giants
24. Willis McGahee, Broncos

Murray was a top-10 back after his Week 13 return, but he remains very inconsistent player, and there are injury concerns. I had no idea where to put Jones-Drew. If healthy, he’s still a legit workhorse RB, but after a wasted 2012 it’ll be extremely tough to rely on him as a fantasy RB2 in 2013. Leshoure is not a very good back, but assuming he remains the starter he should be in a position to score TDs in a high-flying Lions offense. McFadden simply can’t be trusted ever again. If push came to shove, I’d have to probably have two good backs already on roster to select him as the 16th back off the board. Ditto Mathews, whose career could be rejuvenated by a new coaching staff. Gore held on to solid fantasy value in 2012, but his clock is ticking. Like Mathews, Stewart could get a huge boost by a new coaching staff, but he’s still a huge risk with Cam Newton stealing most of the goal line looks. Ballard isn’t an elite talent, but the Colts showed increasing confidence in him this year, and I can’t envision them investing a high draft pick in a RB. That said, Reggie Bush is a free agent who would theoretically give Andrew Luck another explosive offensive option. Where Bush lands will determine his fantasy value. My personal feeling is that there aren’t many teams that would offer him a gig as the featured RB, so he could wind up back in Miami if they envision him in the same role he’s played the last two seasons. I’m not sure when people are going to stop viewing Forte as an elite fantasy RB. He’s scored five or fewer TDs in three of his five career seasons (including the last two) and has missed six games over the last two years. As an upside-loving fantasy footballer, I just can’t ignore young, explosive players like Wilson. He’s too explosive not to be on the field for the Giants next year, and if Ahmad Bradshaw were to go down long-term, he’d immediately have top-10 potential. McGahee was a top-15 fantasy back before his Week 10 injury. He’s signed cheaply in 2013 and should be back as the Broncos’ starter, but there’s a chance Knowshon Moreno will cement himself as the starter – or at least as an equal member of a timeshare backfield – by the end of this year’s playoffs.

25. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
26. Darren Sproles, Saints
27. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
28. Daryl Richardson, Rams
29. Ben Tate, Texans
30. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
31. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
32. Steven Jackson, Rams
33. Mark Ingram, Saints
34. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
35. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
36. Shonn Greene, Free Agent

Obviously, this is where it gets ugly. Green-Ellis had a nice season this year, but his second-half resurgence was fueled by a very easy schedule. I’m still concerned by an almost complete inability to gain yards against good defenses (14 yards vs. the Dolphins and Steelers), and by the fact that a supposed goal line back scored just 6 TDs this year despite ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Sproles is still relevant in PPR leagues, but it’s fairly clear that 2011 was an outlier. Treat his 2012 output as a baseline for 2013. It’s probable that Miller opens 2013 as the starter in Miami if Bush leaves. I’d like to say the same for Richardson in St. Louis, but Jackson has a player option for 2013 that he’ll probably exercise unless he either retires or mistakenly believes another team will give him one last long-term deal. Even if Jackson returns, it’s time for the Rams to turn the page to the far more explosive Richardson. Forced to choose only from the players currently on the Falcons roster, I’d bet on Rodgers to be their 2013 starter. A better bet is that they either pick up a free agent (Bush? Greene?) or draft a feature back in April. Everyone’s a loser in what’s shaping up as another “battle” between Beanie Wells and Williams in Arizona next year. Greene had a nice season in New York, but his YPC declined for a fourth straight season, and we saw what happens to plodding, occasionally successful RBs in free agency with Michael Bush and Brandon Jacobs last offseason. He’ll probably sign somewhere as a pure backup.