The Top 5 Fantasy Picks in 2013

Side effects of Tough Questions include MPE (Mayan Prognostication Error), zombie attack, brain matter splatter, wooden shoes and figgy pudding.

It’s time for the final Tough Question of 2012. The guys are already looking forward to next season as each of them has failed miserably at being a fantasy football owner in this season. So we’re going to get after who the top 5 draft picks of 2013 should be.

Just because we want to give Don and Harley one final chance to win the TQ, we’re making this TRIPLE POINTS PLAYOFF WEEK. So if you want to help either of these guys win, you better vote at every computer you can find. I suggest the local libraries or computer labs at a nearby university. Here’s where the standings sit.

Le final Tough Question:

Who are the top 5 fantasy draft picks in 2013?

Harley Schultz
After a long season of Wet Willies, Eye Gouges, and Atomic Wedgies our fateful Tough Questions journey wraps up this week with a look ahead to the coming season. These days the fantasy season doesn’t end with the last game, many people hunker down over the long cold winter and break out the countdown clock to the upcoming years’ draft. In fact, here at LeagueSafePost.com we have already begun the machinations behind our 2013 rankings. So without further ado here are the players you should take with picks #1-5 in next years’ draft.

1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
Don’s man-crush has earned every bit of his top ranking this season, and this coming year his top spot will not be muddled with underperformers such as Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. Arian Foster is the real deal. Only two backs have more total yards this year, and Foster has scored in all but two games. It seems the only thing that could finally cause a drop in Foster’s production is if he was to suffer a serious injury. If you are lucky enough to draw the ace at your card draw just sit back and enjoy having the guy on your team that has scored 46 touchdowns over the last three years.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Coming into this year, Adrian Peterson was slipping into the late second round due to questions about his ability to return and be effective following ligament surgery at the end of 2011. Well those questions were put to rest immediately this year when he scored two touchdowns and averaged 5 yards per carry Week 1 of this year. Peterson is already over 2000 total yards, and he is surging in an attempt to elapse Eric Dickerson’s rushing record, and he’s doing all of this with no other offensive weapons on his team. Frankly put if AD had come back and rushed for 1200 yards this year he’d have moved back into top-5 conversation, this performance locks him a top-2 spot.

3. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
Doug Martin has utilized his dual skill set to pass over other multi-tool running backs such as Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy. Despite this being only his first year in the league, only Adrian Peterson has more yards from scrimmage this year than the Muscle Hamster. Barring a sophomore slump he could challenge for the most yards from scrimmage next year, it certainly helps that he gets to face the Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans run defenses twice each.

4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
A couple years ago Marshawn Lynch escaped the snow of Buffalo for the rainy seasons in Seattle, perhaps in an attempt to Taste the Rainbow. Three years, 3600 yards, and 29 touchdowns later it is clear that Lynch was better than the guy who struggled to stay healthy and on the field for the Bills. With a solid young QB and a decent supporting cast around him, Lynch seems poised to continue his rise to the top. Assuming he can keep himself healthy, something that was always a concern in Buffalo, than Lynch needs to be one of the first five players off your draft board next year.

5. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions         
I was tempted to suggest Robert Griffin III here, but with the history of drop off in production amongst rushing QB’s year-to-year, and the threat that he could follow in Cam Newton’s shoes with a sophomore slump, I decided instead to go with the guy who will set the league record for receiving yards in a season this year. Despite battling a myriad of injuries all year long and being triple-covered most of the year Calvin Johnson has been targeted 174 times (1^st in the league), he has caught 106 passes (1 behind Brandon Marshall), and he has 1667 receiving yards (269 more than the next closest wide receiver).  Plainly put aside from TD’s which he has previously been amongst the leagues’ leaders in; Megatron remains without question the top overall WR in fantasy football. Over the last seven weeks he has averaged 14 targets, 9 catches, and 147 YPG, he has also scored in four of those games to resurrect his season. Next year Detroit gets Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson back and teams won’t be able to triple-team him anymore – this could get scary good.

Don Hanson
The brain trusts at LeagueSafe headquarters have given us the task of ranking our top 5 fantasy picks for 2013.  This will go down as one of my favorite articles of the year as there is nothing better than looking ahead to a new season after suffering through one as painful as the 2012 year.  However, that is the benefit of playing this game.  For every year of heartbreak, there is an immediate rush to look to the next season for that one player that will set you up for a fantasy championship.  Without further ado, here is my top 5.

1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
Arian Foster is still my top pick if a draft were to be held today.  Over the last three years his combined 46 TDs are the most of any player not playing the QB position.  While he is on pace to hit 400 touches this year, he does an excellent job of avoiding big hits when making contact with defenders.  Contrary to what some believe he very rarely misses games with injuries so his workload is not much of a concern for a guy who hasn’t even turned 27 yet.  In the offseason the Texans will look to bolster the right side of their offensive line which will only help Foster improve on his 4.0 YPC average.  With the first overall pick you need a player that provides you with the insurance of producing while also staying healthy.  Foster is the best case of that in recent memory.  One last thing in regards to Foster.  His schedule for 2013 has him in a much softer division (AFC South) while also getting to face the AFC and NFC West teams.  That should be all you need to take him at the top of your draft.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Adrian Peterson is the best pure runner this league has possibly ever seen and he comes in almost interchangeable with Foster in regards to where he will or could be drafted.  With his remarkable comeback from a devastating knee injury in 2011, Peterson owners have been rewarded with one of the greatest seasons ever for a running back.  He has put up double digit TDs in every season he has played and is on pace for 2000 yards this season.  My only hesitation with him is the injury issue and his possible schedule.  His divisions (NFC North) defenses and his games with the NFC East and AFC North project to be a little tougher than Arian Foster who is the only player I have higher than him.  However, at the level both of these backs are playing, you are merely splitting hairs when trying to decide which one is better than the other.

3. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
C.J. Spiller finds his way into my top 3 for next year.  I know it might sound crazy, but I love what could be ahead for this rising star.  There is a very real possibility that Fred Jackson will not be back next season.  If that is the case, look for the Bills to their former first round pick as the primary back in an offense that loves to run the football.  Buffalo will look to upgrade the QB position going into next year and any type of bump in that production will do wonders for keeping the heat off of Spiller going forward.  Every year there seems to be one guy that makes a big jump and I Spiller will be just that guy in 2013.

4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Calvin Johnson is my fourth overall selection.  While the NFL has turned to a passing league, Johnson rises above his peers every year.  His durability is without question, while his rapport with his starting QB is insane.  Johnson will break Jerry Rice’s yardage record over the next two games and looks to be a stud for years to come.

5. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears
Brandon Marshall cracks my top 5 for 2013.  Those who doubted the Bears would throw the ball enough to keep him happy have been blown away by his performance this year.  The thing is we should have known this would happen.  Every year that Jay Cutler and Marshall have been together has resulted in over 100 targets and receptions for this dynamic duo.  Marshall is a beast and he plays in a division that cannot stop him.  Grab him early in your draft and know that 100/1200/10 is in the cards on a yearly basis.

Matt Swedlund
If you are like me and all of your dreams of winning the 2012 championship have been irrevocably crushed, its time to start turning a critical eye on next years draft and focus on all the hope and positivity that a new season brings. After a couple of crazy years, which culminated last season in three quarterbacks throwing over 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards, things have settled a little in 2012. In all likelihood, no quarterback throws for over 40 touchdowns or 5,000 yards this season. Looking forward to next season, I see think returning to a more traditional draft where running backs dominate the top spots and then quarterbacks and wide receivers slip to that second round. Here are my top five draft picks for the 2013 season:

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Arian Foster has had a nice little run the past couple of seasons but Adrian re-asserted himself as the best running back in the league this year as he attempts to break Eric Dickerson’s record. He has a ridiculous 500-yard lead on Foster for the rushing title and this Vikings team will largely bring back the same squad, specifically on the offensive line, which has jelled unbelievably over the last eight weeks during Petersons epic streak. Whether it’s Ponder or another game managing quarterback, the playbook will remain the same; give AP the ball early and often. Oh, and he has as many rushing yards in the last eight weeks as Foster has all season, is averaging 129.4 yards a game, 6.3 yards per carry and is a super human freak of nature.

2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
Foster’s dominance in the NFL is something to be looked upon with reverence, and as a fantasy football manager, he is solid gold. Three straight seasons with over 1,200 yards and double digit scores. The Texans as a team are only getting better and their stifling defense allows the offense to take its time and punish opponents with its running game.  At age 26, he is absolutely in his prime and you can’t get more stable than his production over the last three years. Foster leads the NFL with 72 rushes and 14 touchdowns in the red zone. The only reason I have AP ranked above him is because AP is 90% of the Vikings offense, which gives him a higher ceiling.

3. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
The career revival is now in full effect for “Beast Mode” and finding a dynamic quarterback in Russell Wilson only helps his production. Consistency is the name of the game at the top end of the fantasy draft and Lynch has back to back 1,200-yard, double digit score seasons. Like the Texans, Seattle is trending upwards and will continue to rely on Lynch to move the chains. He has 14, 100-yard games over the past two seasons and the only noticeable weak spot in his game is the lack of action in the passing game.

4. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins
If RGIII hadn’t sat out a week, he would have a really good shot at a 3,000 yard passing, 1,000 yard rushing season. That accomplishment would have put him in rarified air as only the second quarterback to have a 1,000 yards rushing in a season. The danger here is that he pulls a Cam Newton and has a second season slump but with Alfred Morris running the ball extremely well, Washington is a very balanced team, which will help keep RGIII consistent. He is at the top of nearly all the rankings in completion %, QB Rating, and leads all quarterbacks with at least 12 games in yards per pass at 8.3. Again, this is a team that is trending the right way and with a dynamic young player like RGIII they will continue to build around him. Fantasy wise, his efficiency and ability to minimize mistakes has put him in the upper echelon of quarterbacks.

5. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa
I know, the wounds from last weak are still fresh and painful off of Martin’s nine carry, 16-yard performance in the semi final week of the playoffs, but hear me out. The theme of my top five is teams trending the right way, and Tampa is one of those teams. With the addition of Martin, Tampa’s offense has finally added some balance. The key for Martin next season will be consistency. He had the tendency to bunch up his fantasy points this year with only four 100-yard games and his monster 251-yard, 4-touchdown game in week 9.  After this week, Martin will have likely put up over 1,300 yards and 10-12 touchdowns during the fantasy season which as a body of work is definitely top of the draft material.

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